A look at the Massachusetts Life Sciences index snapshot reveals a number of gainers in the market, including Espirius BioPharma (EPRS), Catabassis Pharma (CATB), Histogenics Corp. (HSGX), InspireMD Inc. (NSPR), Minerva Neuroscience (NERV), Invivo Theapeutic (NVIV), Curis Inc. (CRIS), Agenus Inc. (AGEN), Agios Pharmaceutical (AGIO), and Abiomed Inc. (ABMD). Some of these are edging in and out of gain. There’s some substantial flux right now, and it’s no wonder.
On Wednesday there will be a panel discussion at the Biotechnology Council’s breakfast event in regard to policy leadership. At the conference will be over three hundred executives from such life sciences organizations, as well as numerous state lawmakers. The event is at a high profile venue–Omni Parker House. Representatives from the Massachusetts Medical Society, Health and Human Services division, and Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) will be in attendance. Collegium is planning to develop a new kind of painkiller geared at deterring substance abuse. Whether this is just another iteration of methadone clinic remains to be seen, but what is sure is that there will be an increase in stock value throughout Collegium’s development, and during their initial launch. Whether the launch results in successful results and facilitation of continued gain will depend on a lot of factors, mostly political. Public opinion regarding pharmaceuticals is shifting, which means there may be a peak–or a “bubble elasticity limit”, if you will–in the near future.
People like Kyle Bass are regularly undermining pharmaceuticals and making huge profits, which is forcing executives in multiple markets to scramble so that lost profit may be recaptured. This can result in products released despite less than optimum clinical trials. Right now the key is to get in while there’s an expansion going on in the pharmaceutical market, as a contraction will come soon. Factors influencing this contraction will have to do with this year’s election.
Should the Democratic candidate be voted in, it is more than likely the market will increase a while longer. Should the conservative/republican candidate get voted in, it’s anybody’s guess what will happen. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio have all kinds of opinions regarding pharmaceuticals, and the amount of money behind them makes it seem as though only public backlash would deter their political investment. That said, backlash is coiling like a spring currently.
What’s sure right now is that the government is behind pharmaceuticals developing legal alternatives to opioid use under guise of “treatment”. This is only mentioned as evidence toward a possible bubble implosion in future, meaning there will be a pharmaceutical peak, and a crash eventually. Events like this herald an increase, but public backlash over failed initiatives often result in a steep loss. Kyle Bass’ “Coalition For Affordable Drugs” has done two things worthy of note to the market: it’s decreased the cost of several big ticket pharmaceuticals’ medication, and it’s facilitated increased purchase of them as more patients are able to afford them. That Bass used this decrease in cost to short-sell sock and make a fortune is almost beside the point. Now Massachusetts is looking at initiatives that will likewise facilitate dependence on a pharmaceutical option, and require an increasingly decreased cost to the drug–just like in the Bass’ scenario. This will probably mean a spike in value will be followed by a sharp drop, and then a steady increase from several of the best purveyors of opioid substitutes in Massachusetts.